Transcript:

John Gilroy: Welcome to Constellations, the podcast from Kratos. My name is John Gilroy and I’ll be your moderator. As satellite launches accelerate and orbital congestion grows, sustainability is becoming a business imperative rather than simply an environmental concern. In this episode, we’ll talk to Novaspace about the industry’s transition from voluntary best practices to measurable economic, operational and regulatory strategies for preserving the space environment. Novaspace’s work on sustainability highlights how debris mitigation, space traffic coordination, in-orbit servicing, and lifecycle design are reshaping investment and competitive advantage across the space economy.

In the virtual studio today, we got a couple experts from Novaspace. We’re joined with Kat Hickey, senior manager, and Federico Trovarelli, manager at the aforementioned Novaspace. Ready to jump in this big topic, Kat and Fed?

Kat Hickey: Absolutely. Thanks for having us.

Federico Trovarelli: Hi, John.

John Gilroy: Good, good. So I have a questions assigned for each one of you, but the first one’s going to be a little jump ball in basketball. And so what I’m going to do is ask a question and maybe we’ll have Kat contribute, then Fede contribute, and then we’ll go to the regular questions. So here’s the first one. So it’s going to be both of you jumping on this one. Orbital sustainability has become one of the defining topics in the space industry. What’s driving the conversation today and why is it now a strategic issue rather than simply an environmental one? Satellite operators are launching thousands of new spacecraft over the next decade. Are we reaching a tipping point where today’s operating practices simply won’t scale?

Kat, you want to jump in?

Kat Hickey: Yeah, absolutely. I’ll maybe start with the first aspect on the strategic question here. I think the big thing that is on everyone’s mind is just the sheer number of satellites in orbit. We have a database of satellites to be built and launched and our current forecast sits at around 43,000 satellites to be launched by 2034. So that rapid growth in terms of the numbers, particularly when we’re looking at the NGSO, is really increasing congestion and then also increasing the collision risk associated with that. But at the same time, there’s a big market value attached to those numbers of satellites. So again, in our forecast, the 10-year total market value just for manufacturing and launch of those numbers of satellites sits at over 600 billion US dollars. And that immediately makes it a strategic question rather than just environmental one.

There’s often an analogy being given by people in terms of the number of cars on the roads and the number of satellites in orbit. It’s quite an easy way to visualize maybe the density of assets that weave up there. But also we have to keep in mind that it’s a fundamentally different physical environment. On the roads we have strong gravity, we have natural borders, there’s infrastructure, trees, houses, things next to the roads that will impact what happens in case of collisions. In orbit, we have none of these. So overall, there’s a fundamental difference in terms of how these systems and how these assets behave.

The second is that of course also with the automotive industry having grown over decades and even over a century, rules of the road literally, and also the infrastructure and supporting services have evolved over time. And the same needs to happen for the orbital environment just in the same way. It’s not just about preserving the valuable orbital regimes in the end, but there’s also an economic value attached to those regimes that we need to preserve.

And we all depend on the services that come from these satellites on a daily basis as well. So overall, I think it’s very clear that it’s not just the question of being environmentally responsible, but also looking at some very important strategic and economic reasons.

John Gilroy: So Fede, time for you to chime in here. So why is now it becoming a strategic issue?

Federico Trovarelli: I mean, it’s becoming a strategic issue because the numbers have really grown a lot in the last few years. We all know about Starlink, just to give a data, DLR estimated between November 2024 and May 2025, 144,000 collision risk mitigation maneuvers. And that’s a lot. And of course at some point classical methods for managing traffic in space, especially LEO, we are very good at that. Also in Europe, we have a lot of control center that are dedicated to this or different kinds of satellite, but at some point simply the scale of the problem will become too much to be handled with the human in the loop. So automation has also come into play in the last five years with these great evolutions in AI that can be factored in the collision management and traffic management loop. So there is, let’s say, a convergence between a need that is becoming more and more pressing and the possibility of technology that need to come together to basically solve the issue to mundane, as Kat said, this resource that we have sustainable, usable, and profitable.

John Gilroy: So Kat, Fede just talked about all kinds of collisions, Novaspace has emphasized the economic consequences of orbital congestion. So how should executives think about sustainability as a business risk rather than a compliance exercise?

Kat Hickey: Yeah, that’s an interesting question. And I think more and more people are starting to see really where this is going. With orbital congestion overall, we are increasing the cost of operating a satellite. There are more and more maneuvers. Fede just gave some very interesting stats there that operators have to perform. And then overall, because of the increased risk, there’s also a question of insurance and the affordability of maybe insurance related to that.

Second, a very important thing is that the implementing sustainability practices can really also help from a market and service point of view. Implementing very poor sustainability practices in turn means that maybe the satellite lifetime won’t be as long, maybe the reliability of the service won’t be as good, and in the end you might actually end up limiting future market access by not being sustainable. So overall, there’s sort of big business incentive also to think about sustainability and about designing satellites in a very sustainable way to reduce risk and then to avoid costly redesigns later on.

Overall, there’s also just a fundamental question of access to space. The more we congest the orbital environment, the harder it will be to go to space and to access some of those orbits, and that puts entire business models at risk.

John Gilroy: So Fede, space situation awareness, traffic coordination in or resurfacing, they’re often discussed separately, but are they really becoming parts of a single sustainability ecosystem?

Federico Trovarelli: I mean, in the end, I believe that it’s different angles of the same problem. What you want to do is to see, decide, and then act as you do. We can go back to the example of terrestrial and car traffic or road traffic, and it’s a bit the same thing that we left in space. Of course, we are at a different stage. We are at the rise of this new traffic issuing space. But in the end, the functions that we need to tackle are the same. And the see part, which is the awareness that can come from space or from ground is really something relevant. I mean, there are 40,000 catalog objects, again, this is according to DLR data, but there are above 10 centimeters diameter, but there are one million debris objects that are still above one centimeter. So this is really something that is expanding now in terms of interest. There are a lot of companies and a lot of commercial interest around this.

And then there is the decide part. There is again, as we said, once a conjunction or a possible risk of collision is detected, then you need to understand what to do and how to act, who has to act as well according to certain rules that are agreed across the different parties of the collision. And then finally, there is the act part. And in this sense, servicing especially or different kinds of servicing can be refueling, it can be life extension and series of application that you can have need to give you this flexibility. I mean, of course, satellites have their own propulsion, so most of them can indeed maneuver, but if orbital conjunction increase, so if there is more traffic, you need to maneuver more, you need to have more flexibility. So of course, we need to think in the sense of an ecosystem, of an infrastructure itself that is served by different non-sole mission focus, but in a network-oriented way.

John Gilroy: So Fede, I have a money question for you here.

Federico Trovarelli: Yeah.

John Gilroy: How are investors beginning to evaluate this concept of sustainability? Is responsible behavior becoming a competitive advantage when raising capital or winning government contracts?

Federico Trovarelli: I mean, that’s for sure sustainability is a big topic now and in the past few years and will be in the future as well. So as Kat introduced earlier, operational resilience and compliance with regulations risk is something that investors consider definitely, especially in a regulatory environment that is changing. I mean, there’s the use-based act, there are other national frameworks that are currently evolving. So indeed this aspect has to be considered within business models.

Other opportunities, for example, is that indeed regulations enforce sustainability. I mean, it’s really the first driver that currently fosters this market, not only for the satellite, for the assets itself, but also for system that enable the sustainability. So innovation, not only for the assets as a whole, but for the single technology that can be equipped on the asset.

John Gilroy: So Kat, Fede just mentioned regulation. Which emerging regulations around the world are likely to have the biggest impact on satellite operators over the next five years?

Kat Hickey: I think there’s two aspects to consider here. The first one is really what’s happening at a regional level across different national jurisdictions. One key regulatory element to mention here is the proposed EU Space Act. There’s some very explicit requirements in there for European operators or those wanting to serve the EU market. That looks at cooperative behavior of satellites, that looks at minimizing risk of collision, but that also looks at things like end of life disposal. So there’s really a sort of overarching view on orbital sustainability in that regulatory piece. And even though at the moment it’s in draft stage, but I think that as a principle will not go away even in future iterations. It’s also important to note here that the European Space Agency, for example, has already voluntary mechanisms in place. So for example, there’s the ESA Zero Debris Charter, which entities can support and can subscribe to. So there’s already this kind of movement happening in this direction.

The other aspect to this, going from the regional level to the national level, is individual national jurisdictions imposing different rules. So for example, in the US, there’s a five-year post-mission disposal that’s now being included in the regulatory requirements. Other countries like France, like the UK, like Japan have provisions as well. And so it’s nice to see that in the regulatory frameworks being taken up, but of course also the fact that different jurisdictions have different and somewhat fragmented rules poses challenges for operators who are then looking to implement because in the end, the space sector is a very global sector and has a lot of collaboration. And so individual operators need to navigate those fragmented individual national jurisdictions rules.

John Gilroy: So Kat, in the beginning of this interview you mentioned design. How many organizations … Or the question is, many organizations focus on debris removal, but are we overlooking the importance of designing satellites for sustainability from the very beginning?

Kat Hickey: It’s a very valid question. Debris removal is a very important aspect and one that’s kind of a good hook and easy to talk about, but prevention of course should always come first. So let’s not focus on cleaning up the mess, but let’s focus on preventing the mess from happening in the first place. So here, satellites should be designed from the outset for being able to maneuver, passervation tracking, reliable disposal in ways that’s sustainable, or at least they should be ready for some basic servicing so that potential issues can be addressed. If decisions for such sustainable designs can be made in the early stages, then that can also reduce costs and risk throughout the mission. So that brings us back to the kind of economic aspects of this whole topic. And then as the commercial environment is evolving with different requirements, with services evolving, with customer needs evolving, that’s also a very sensible thing to do from a commercial point of view.

To some extent though, I wouldn’t say we’re overlooking this. This is already on people’s radar. Even though debris removal is talked about a lot, there’s actually a lot of work also happening in terms of designing satellites for sustainable operations from day one. And there’s a lot of talk about this. Recently we attended the ESA clean space days. So there was a series of actors in this stakeholders who are already pursuing such designs and are trying to push this further.

John Gilroy: So Kat, how should commercial operators and governments divide responsibility for preserving the orbital environment?

Kat Hickey: In our view, I would say it’s less about how to divide the responsibility, but how can they work together? For sure, governments in the end are there to establish rules of the road to come back to this analogy, to maybe set some standards and some mechanisms for international coordination. Collaboration across jurisdictions is also very important and kind of links back with what we talked about earlier on some of the fragmented frameworks. Operators, on the other hand, should also show responsible behavior in terms of their operations, how they’re sharing information and how they approach end of life disposal. And all of that can be enabled by regulation to level the playing field and enable operators to work in there responsibly without being disadvantaged. And actually a really interesting example on this is what collaboration is happening between the commercial and the regulatory side is in the UK where they have these regulatory sandboxes, for example, on rendezvous and proximity operations. And that’s a really nice kind of framework where you have those both sides working together and maybe something that could be replicated elsewhere.

John Gilroy: Fede, I think we’re living in a world of innovation. Where do you see the greatest innovation opportunities in active debris removal, autonomous operations, AI enabled collision avoidance or in-orbit servicing or something else? Where’s the opportunity here?

Federico Trovarelli: Well, I see two main categories. One is automation, indeed, that enables scale. We talked about in the number of maneuvers that due to the growth of assets in space, there are already several company startup initiatives that are actively looking at this, at making algorithms that can operate alone, can take decisions alone and that basically implement those traffic management rules. And this is just an example, but it’s a very good example of something concrete that is being advanced now both I would say at commercial level with startups, but also at institutional level with ESA, for example, pushing for such initiative. I can think of a [inaudible 00:16:40] IOD for example.

And the other side is definitely servicing. I mean, if autonomy can push scale, servicing can really change the paradigm of [inaudible 00:16:52] in space. At the moment we put a satellite in space, we know it will have a certain amount of time to leave depending on constraints that apply to its altitude or [inaudible 00:17:04] system, propulsion, consumables, but also on the other side, the payload. But really if you can refuel, if you can move your satellite around, if you can even swap some bailout parts or some other hardware parts, this really removes constraint from what you can and cannot do. And this will change completely the paradigm of how we actually use space. It’s like a car. If something breaks or if you want to go faster, you pin your engine or you do something else. And this is something that in space now we cannot do, but we might be able to do in 10, 20 years.

John Gilroy: So Fede, if you could change one industry practice tomorrow that would have the biggest long-term impact on orbital sustainability, what would it be?

Federico Trovarelli: I think, I want to give a very simple response to this. I would make satellite service ready by design. So we don’t know, actually, there will be different kinds of services. We are actually studying now as a consulting company, but in collaboration with the industry and technical experts, what actually can be the services in space of the future that is indeed refueling, backpacking, payload hosting. There is a lot of things. We don’t know which one yet will be the winner or which ones will be the winners, but we know that at some point these services will be reality.

So making your satellite capable of being serviced or capable of interacting with other spacecraft in orbit and interoperable with them is a decision that can really repay a lot of times in the future. And it possibly doesn’t cost a lot to make your satellite service ready today. So it’s something that I think it’s really a forward-looking decision.

John Gilroy: So Kat, what are the biggest misconceptions the industry still has about sustainability?

Kat Hickey: I think we touched upon a lot of this already. In the end, debris removal is talked about a lot, but there’s so much more and Fede just pointed out a whole opportunity behind satellite servicing more holistically, which could be backpacking, refueling, you name it. And we’ve actually got some market intelligence on this In-Orbit Services Market Report. We estimate a 10-year market value of these types of services of about three billion. So it’s not huge, but it’s definitely a growing field where there’s a lot of potential.

The second is really on cost. Designing for sustainability is not just an additional cost, but actually creates opportunities and also can create value and reduce risk at the same time. So it’s something that everybody should be pursuing. And then maybe the last one is to think about these orbits that are physically very large assets, but to think of them as very commercially valuable regimes and maybe similar to spectrum, to satellite frequencies, a limited and finite resource that we need to handle responsibly and where we need to collaborate on a global scale to be able to achieve sustainable and maintained use of these assets.

John Gilroy: So Fede, I got a final question for you because Kat mentioned 10 years. So we’re going to try to see how your brain works 10 years in the future here. So Fede, looking ahead to 2035, what do you hope we’ll be saying about the state of Earth’s orbital environment and what concerns you most if we don’t act quickly?

Federico Trovarelli: Well, I think that in 10 years, I hope that we won’t have any more podcast about sustainability in space because that has become the norm.

John Gilroy: You’ll lose a job. You’ll have no job, Fede.

Federico Trovarelli: Maybe I will change. No, but it’s just a joke in the sense that of course now it’s a super important topic in industry, not just space, but in general. But I hope really that in 10 years it will be the norm and we want that to worry about it because there are systems in place, there are rules that are respected and actually that work. So that would be the first thing.

And then the second is a timing thing that, as you said, what if we fail? The thing is at the moment the regulations and institutions and entities are trying to chase the problem. So we know that assets are increasing, problems are increasing. So we know that there is a certain horizon where things might be better if we don’t act. I hope that in the future we are ahead of the problem. So we act in a preventive way and not trying to chase a problem that is becoming bigger. So we need to accelerate on this and anticipate issues rather than chasing them in this specific domain of sustainability, but also others.

John Gilroy: Good, good, good. Well, Kat and Fede, I think you’ve given our listeners a better understanding of orbital sustainability. I’d like to thank our guests, Kat Hickey, senior manager and Federico Trovarelli, manager at Novaspace.

Federico Trovarelli: Thank you, John.

Kat Hickey: Thank you so much, John.

Federico Trovarelli: Thanks a lot for having us.