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Q&A with Andrew Cavalier,

Principal Analyst at ABI Research

Beyond Connectivity

Why HALO and IRIS² Will Be Won on the Ground

8/11/2026 Link icon

A silhouette of a vast array of satellite dish antennas stretches across a flat landscape under a gradient twilight sky at sunset.

Sovereign space programs, where national space assets are owned and controlled rather than leased and outsourced, are reshaping how the industry invests and plans. The satellites often earn the headlines, but what’s being specified, procured and fought over is the ground layer.

On July 7, eight NATO allies (Canada, Denmark, Finland, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden and Türkiye) announced HALO, Hybrid Alliance Layered Operations in Space, a plan to network national military satellites into a hybrid constellation while leaving the fleets nationally owned and controlled. This is a distinct initiative from Europe’s IRIS², where the beneficiary is the whole EU rather than a coalition of member nations, and a clear signal of Europe’s evolving sovereignty intent. IRIS², which has crossed from political mandate into physical acquisition, is now focused on critical design review and first-batch manufacturing. While both programs aim to give their governments secure satellite connectivity they own and control, HALO federating satellites that already exist while IRIS² launches new ones, the ground segment got detailed first.

The money is already confirming this movement as well. On July 29, Spain committed up to US$2.3 billion to a national secure satcom program to be folded into IRIS², days after Poland announced a US$749.5 million contribution of its own. That’s two sovereign programs in one week, each paying for its own ground control inside a shared constellation at a point when IRIS² has yet to launch any satellites or even award its LEO manufacturing prime. The satellites are still a procurement question, while the money for the ground segment is already moving.

Sovereignty Rhetoric

Any sovereign constellation which cannot land, legally, physically and interoperably, is a liability. Interoperability across eight national fleets (in HALO’s case) isn’t achieved by orbital assets alone, whatever the headlines might suggest. It’s achieved at the gateways, in key custody, in protocol translation, and through jurisdiction of traffic. IRIS² appears to have this settled, with Hispasat contracted to design, deliver and operate the governmental ground segment, including facilities to manage the orbital layers and connect them with terrestrial networks. HALO has yet to settle any of this and starts with eight separate national ground stacks.

What HALO Actually Requires

Integrating eight separate national ground stacks is the real challenge here. The requirements cover mutual gateway landing rights, interoperable and virtualized ground software, cross-nation key management, and resilient telemetry, tracking and command (TT&C) across allied territory. IRIS² has already put the virtualization precedent into its own procurement documents, specifying its constellation control center as a software-only component, deployed on top of virtualized infrastructure. For now, HALO has no equivalents and it surfaces a gap where the satellites largely exist, but the agreements to land them on each other’s soil do not. The challenge for HALO and sovereign stacks like it remain in treaties and ground architecture compliance rather than the satellites themselves.

Where the Challenges Sit

Geography is the first challenge. High-latitude passes are why the Nordic membership isn’t decorative, and presence of overseas territory is why the IRIS² control framing reaches to overseas TT&C stations and owns integration of the wider ground segment. Connecting and controlling satellites over far orbit requires ground visibility and antennas in these regions.

Capacity is the second challenge. LEO systems without optical inter-satellite links (OISLs) can only move data when in view of a ground station, and for a network with a sparsely stitched together ground segment throttle throughput. The OISL architecture of IRIS² will help overcome this constraint, allowing it to route traffic across the constellation to available ground stations, but traffic can only land where landing rights are resolved.

ABI Research’s ground station tracker maps over 1,000 sites globally, and based on the current deployment, capability is not the constraint; much of the commercial majority could technically carry government traffic. The critical requirement here for IRIS² and HALO is control. The subset that sits under national ownership, with military-band access and sovereign jurisdiction over what lands there, is smaller and unevenly distributed. This distribution is what determines whether an eight-nation coalition can land its traffic on allied soil under allied control. For ground operators, the signal is clear: sovereign-capable ground stations are about to become high-in-demand strategic assets.

The Watchlist

For IRIS² and HALO, a few signals over the next 24 months will show whether this is moving in the sovereignty direction procurement documents suggest.

First, the IRIS² ground-lot awards, expected within the 2026-2027 design-review window. The one to watch for is the control lot, because whoever wins it owns the integration layer of the entire ground segment and overseas TT&C sites. They would hold the sovereign command layer. Second is HALO’s first mutual-landing or ground-interoperability agreement. HALO’s satellites already exist, so the gap is more legal than technical, the inverse of IRIS². The first signed agreement letting one member’s traffic land on another’s soil is the signal that the interoperability promise is becoming real.

History suggests that the two programs go different ways, as they follow different models. Pooling nationally owned military assets, which HALO proposes, has a consistently poor and slow record, since integration keeps foundering on national control rather than engineering. EU institutional procurement, what IRIS² is, is also slow, but it delivers: programs arrive late and over budget, yet they arrive. Galileo is the clean case, an EU civil program that took roughly two decades and exists. That pattern puts IRIS² on the side that historically gets built and HALO on the side that historically drifts.

If by the end of 2027 HALO members are each building isolated national gateways with no mutual landing rights, then the interoperability promise will have come apart on the ground, regardless of what flies in orbit. Eight HALO nations, and now IRIS²’s own member states, are buying sovereign ground control. European sovereignty in IRIS² and HALO will be won on the ground, and on current signals, IRIS² is the one winning it.


Rocket Lab’s Iridium Deal Signals a New Era of Space Consolidation

7/14/2026 Link icon

A close-up shot of two business professionals shaking hands against a bright, modern architectural backdrop with overlaying blue light flares.

Rocket Lab’s acquisition of Iridium marks one of the most significant consolidation moves in the commercial space industry of late, signaling a shift toward vertically integrated companies that can build, launch and operate satellite networks.

ABI Research Principal Analyst Andrew Cavalier examines what the deal means for competition, resilient PNT, spectrum strategy and the future structure of the space economy.

Q: What underlying industry forces made this cross‑segment consolidation inevitable, and what does it signal about the future structure of the satellite services market?

A: The economics of standalone launch made something like this inevitable. Launch is commoditizing, the recurring revenue in this industry lives in services, and public markets pay for annuities, not manifests. SpaceX proved that owning the full stack is a structural advantage rather than a cost play, and defense procurement is reinforcing it, since proliferated LEO programs favor companies that can build, launch, and operate under one roof. Rocket Lab spent 2025 and 2026 assembling the manufacturing and payload layer through acquisitions like Mynaric and Geost, so buying an operator was the last logical step. Scarcity matters just as much. Rocket Lab itself framed the deal as sidestepping three barriers: spectrum access, the years of infrastructure buildout before revenue and the decade it takes to assemble a customer base. None of those can be built from scratch at a sensible cost. The structural signal is consolidation into a small set of integrated space primes with specialized suppliers around them, a shrinking merchant market in between and M&A as the default mechanism for closing stack gaps.

Q: What strategic tensions or integration challenges do you expect as these two very different operational models are brought together?

A: The two businesses run on different clocks. Iridium operates safety services with GMDSS and aviation certifications, government contracts that assume continuity and a partner channel of more than 500 companies built over decades. That business rewards conservatism. Rocket Lab’s advantage is high-cadence iteration, which is what you want in manufacturing and precisely what maritime regulators and safety customers do not want in their network.

I would watch three things. The partner ecosystem, because some of those 500 companies will now see their supplier becoming a competitor, and channel conflict is how operators quietly lose distribution. Operations talent, because the people who run a five 9s network are not the people who build rockets. And capital sequencing, because Rocket Lab is scaling Neutron, digesting four other acquisitions, servicing a multibillion-dollar bridge loan and inheriting an aging fleet that needs replacement, all simultaneously. The discipline test is resisting the urge to force growth into a structurally mature narrowband business and instead treating Iridium’s cash flows as the funding base for the next-generation network.

Q: With governments and operators exploring resilient PNT as one of several emerging LEO services, where does the combined company realistically fit into that demand, and how should we interpret PNT within Rocket Lab’s broader roadmap rather than as a standalone priority?

A: Iridium is the only company operating a commercial LEO PNT service at scale today. The STL capability it acquired through Satelles broadcasts on L-band with a signal strong enough to work indoors, while dedicated LEO PNT entrants like Xona and TrustPoint are still deploying. So, the combined company starts from a real position, particularly in timing resilience for critical infrastructure, which is where government and operator demand is most concrete right now.

That said, I would resist reading PNT as a pillar of the deal logic. It is an attached service. The satellites are already flying and the spectrum is already licensed, so the marginal cost is low and the margin is attractive, but the revenue is modest against an eight-billion dollar acquisition. Its real value inside Rocket Lab’s roadmap is strategic. Resilient PNT deepens exactly the government relationships that feed the rest of the business, and it makes the company relevant to assured PNT procurements that a launch and manufacturing firm would never have touched.

Q: What does taking on a legacy spectrum position mean for a company that’s historically operated without regulated spectrum assets?

A: Spectrum changes what kind of company Rocket Lab is. Until now its assets were factories, rockets and contracts. Globally coordinated L-band comes with ITU obligations, national licensing and safety service duties, which puts part of the business on a regulatory clock. Constellation replacement stops being a market-timing decision and becomes non-negotiable CAPEX, because spectrum rights you are not using are rights you eventually lose.

That discipline cuts both ways. It forces the long-horizon investment planning launch companies have never needed, but it also anchors the recurring revenue that justifies the integrated model. The opportunity lies in how the spectrum gets modernized. Iridium was already converting its legacy position into a standards-based one through NB-IoT direct-to-device work, with mobile operators like Deutsche Telekom integrating it, and that is the path that turns mature spectrum into an addressable chipset market. The mistake would be chasing throughput. L-band’s value is reach and reliability, not bandwidth, and the long-term strategy should stack service layers on that reach rather than compete with broadband constellations.


SpaceX’s Next Chapter: What an IPO Means for the Future of Satellite Connectivity

6/16/2026 Link icon

A large white building features the prominent, silver SpaceX logo on its facade under a clear blue sky, with a tall, white rocket booster standing to the left.

A SpaceX IPO would be one of the largest and most consequential events in commercial space history, signaling growing investor confidence in satellite networks as critical digital infrastructure.

Rachel Kong, industry analyst for ABI Research, explores what a public SpaceX could mean for investment, competition, direct-to-device services and the broader convergence of satellite, telecom, cloud and AI ecosystems.

Q: What does the potential SpaceX IPO signal about investor confidence in the commercial space sector, and could it accelerate investment across the broader satellite industry?

A: SpaceX’s IPO is at a target valuation of approximately $1.75 trillion with capital to raise targeted up to $75 billion. The sheer scale of this IPO indicates that investor confidence in the commercial space sector has evolved from speculative and venture-backed curiosity to institutional validation. The IPO filings revealed that Starlink generated $11.4 billion in 2025, accounting for over 60% of SpaceX’s revenue, demonstrating the value and monetization opportunity of LEO satellite constellations and validating the mega-constellations business model as one of the connectivity pillars supporting telecom infrastructure.

Starlink’s success proves the global demand for satellite connectivity and will accelerate investments into the downstream ecosystem such as space-grade chipsets, laser communications, ground station infrastructure and technologies like artificial intelligence (AI) and quantum key distribution (QKD) that support digital security and increase the efficiency of operations.

While investments will accelerate, the IPO will also highlight the stark contrast between SpaceX and emerging competition. This move will drain liquidity from smaller, emerging space companies as capital and funding concentrates around a few dominant players in the market for satellite-enabled Direct-to-Device (D2D) players (AST SpaceMobile, Lynk, Skylo, Globalstar, Iridium, etc.). Meanwhile, in the global satellite broadband market, SpaceX will face stiff competition from massive mega-constellations like Amazon Leo and Spacesail’s Qianfan constellations. This stand-off occurs as SpaceX actively disrupts fixed satellite service players like SES and Eutelsat OneWeb, which are focusing heavily on a multi-orbit strategy to retain enterprise and government clients.

Q: A public SpaceX would bring even greater attention to satellite connectivity markets. How might that influence the deployment of next-generation constellations and the expansion of services beyond traditional satcom?

A: In the D2D and mobile connectivity markets, there will be increased pressure on existing satellite providers to build and launch their satellite constellations within their targeted timelines. We can already see satellite operators like AST SpaceMobile grappling with launch delays and execution bottlenecks, with Bluebird 7 failing to reach the correct orbit on Blue Origin’s New Glenn in April 2026. However, the company is shifting its near-term strategy, preparing to launch Bluebirds 8, 9 and 10 aboard a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket in June 2026. The heavy reliance on launch providers and supply chains constraints already is accelerating a broader shift towards deep vertical integration. AST SpaceMobile has a vertically integrated manufacturing strategy through designing, developing and manufacturing almost all sub-systems internally. In April 2026, Rocket Lab acquired Mynaric AG for US$155.3 million, an optical laser communications provider, bringing the manufacturing of laser optical communications terminals in-house, ensuring they have complete control over their deployment pipeline. In China, Spacesail has heavily integrated its manufacturing pipeline via mega-factories that can produce up to 300 Qianfan satellites annually. As of June 2026, Spacesail Technologies launched over 200 of its Qianfan satellites into orbit.

Expansion of D2C applications will undergo faster commercial rollout as operators race to demonstrate competitive advantages and differentiation of services. Many satellite providers have upgraded their satellite constellations for D2C services – notably Starlink’s V3 satellites and AST SpaceMobile’s Block 2 Bluebirds – to bring global mobile connectivity to unmodified smartphones. In addition, SpaceX’s strategic merger with xAI underscores their intention to move high performance into the space service stack. Orbital data centers, as covered extensively by my colleague Andrew Cavalier, will be one of the key developments that ABI Research expects to expand rapidly. For example, SpaceX’s infrastructure play has already locked in deals through massive enterprise cloud contracts, including Google’s $920 million monthly lease starting October 2026, and Anthropic’s $1.25 billion monthly agreement for mega-scale GPU capacity.

Q: SpaceX has helped demonstrate the commercial potential of satellite broadband and D2D connectivity. Following a potential IPO, what new business models or revenue opportunities do you expect to emerge across the industry?

A: SpaceX will dedicate a massive portion of its IPO proceeds to scale its computing infrastructure and build its space-based data centers. As space-based AI chipsets and modems are critical components of this ecosystem, the semiconductor industry is set to gain significantly from this shift. For example, Google placed an order with Intel to manufacture more than 3 million tensor processing units in 2028, highlighting how semiconductor giants are ramping up production to feed the global demand for AI infrastructure.

Another critical supporting technology required for this ecosystem is the deployment of optical satellite communications and laser hardware. Because space-based data centers cannot rely on traditional radio frequencies to transfer massive AI workloads between satellites, the shift towards orbital computing triggers an urgent need for ultra-high bandwidth optical inter-satellite links. For example, the European Space Agency (ESA) awarded a $21.8 million contract to Canada-based Kepler Communications in April 2026 to deploy and host new space-based laser communication payloads and advance optical networking.

Q: SpaceX has positioned satellite networks as part of a larger digital ecosystem that includes mobile operators, cloud providers and IoT platforms. How do you see this convergence reshaping the competitive landscape and creating new opportunities for satellite-enabled services?

A: One of the most consequential developments has been the convergence of satellite and cellular ecosystems via satellite D2D connectivity. Historically, mobile network operators have relied on the coverage and capabilities of their terrestrial tower networks for strategic differentiation. Moving forward, we are seeing carrier’s competitive edge becoming increasingly influenced by its orbital partner ecosystem. While we see major carriers like T-Mobile, AT&T and Verizon aggressively moving into satellite joint ventures and partnerships, skepticism persists in the telecom industry around NTN’s capability to move the revenue needle.

The integration of LEO satellite networks with cloud architectures, coupled with the ability to run AI directly on satellite payloads, will expose more satellite-enabled services for downstream industries. Earth observation satellite imagery used by government, maritime, geopolitical and defense industries can be processed onboard. Instead of downlinking massive, raw multi-gigabyte image files taking hours to decode, the system processes the raw pixels in orbit and downlinks only highly compressed, actionable intelligence. This will drastically minimize data latency, establish a highly secure closed-loop environment, and optimize bandwidth efficiency by downlinking only the critical data points to the customers and enterprises.

Ultimately, the entire stack in the space ecosystem value chain – satellite operators, mobile network operators, handset OEMs, chipset vendors, cloud players, data center providers and launch providers will be more integrated and closely connected.


Sovereignty Without Borders

5/5/2026 Link icon

Digital rendering of Earth at night with glowing interconnected network lines representing global telecommunications.

The concept of sovereign space is shifting rapidly, from owning satellites to controlling the full operational stack, including data, networks and decision-making authority.

Andrew Cavalier, principal analyst at ABI Research, explains how governments are navigating the tension between global mega-constellations and national autonomy, and why hybrid architectures are emerging as the most pragmatic path to sovereignty in an increasingly interconnected space economy.

Q: Sovereign space is often framed as a national security imperative. How are governments redefining sovereignty in space beyond ownership of assets to include control over data, networks, and operational autonomy?

A: Sovereignty in space was a major theme at the Satellite 2026 show in Washington, D.C., earlier this year. The concept has rapidly shifted from asset ownership to controlling the entire operational stack: hardware, data, networks and operational autonomy. In this new paradigm, sovereignty is not necessarily tied to geography either. For example, Ukrainian officials reportedly concluded that sovereign data was more secure outside of Ukraine.

The EU is also evolving its definition of sovereignty quickly. The EU GOVSATCOM initiative, which went live in 2026, is a strong example of how government is driving commercial operators to pool together into a sovereign network. Likewise, global operators such as AST SpaceMobile are now willing to engineer sovereignty at the operational layer by opening an operations center in Germany with a command switch, effectively handing European partners control over encryption keys and beam management, not just access to them. Sovereignty has become the price of admission to European regulatory and political acceptance.

Q: How does the rise of mega-constellations and direct-to-device services reshape the ability of smaller or emerging space nations to assert sovereignty over communications and spectrum?

A: Mega-constellations and D2D services create a paradox for small and emerging space nations. On one hand, they can rapidly expand coverage and bring connectivity to underserved users and unconnected mobile devices outside cellular networks, both critical for an evolving digital economy. On the other hand, these networks are global, concentrate control over their users’ data and create dependency on another nation’s infrastructure. The barrier to access is low, and these capabilities exist in handsets and in orbit, whether or not the nation has formally licensed them.

Q: What role do hybrid architectures—combining sovereign assets with commercial and multi-orbit networks—play in achieving practical sovereignty without sacrificing performance or global interoperability?

A: As I noted in my Insight, Key Takeaways from Satellite 2026: NTN, Defense, and Sovereignty, the irony of the sovereignty push is that it cuts both ways for the market. Leasing commercial capacity alone is no longer viewed as sufficient, but every country building a sovereign network is also untenable. Hybrid architectures help solve this by layering sovereign-controlled assets (dedicated government systems) with nationally or regionally pooled commercial capacity and multi-orbit commercial services procured under sovereign-aware contracts. As a result, a middle-tier of sovereignty is achieved, backed by architecture and contracts rather than full-stack ownership.

Q: Are there regions or national strategies that stand out as models for balancing sovereignty, economic growth and participation in the global space ecosystem?

A: The EU has been a stand-out here. GOVSATCOM, IRIS², and the EU Space Act collectively act as a strong foundation for a sovereign regulatory architecture. Together, these initiatives cover compliance, encryption and cybersecurity mandates as a “values-led” sovereignty rather than commercial-led or state-led.

Other good examples include small-nation models from Australia, Singapore and Luxembourg. Rather than building full sovereign constellations, they build enabling environments, incubators, policies and niche supply chains. This demonstrates sovereignty through value chain participation rather than full-stack ownership.


Virtualized Ground Powers NTN Growth

4/7/2026 Link icon

A satellite dish tower is centered against a digital background of green concentric circles filled with scrolling binary code digits.

As satellite networks evolve toward more agile, software-defined architectures, the ground segment is undergoing a parallel transformation into a critical control layer for enabling seamless satellite/terrestrial integration. Andrew Cavalier, principal analyst for ABI Research, explains how virtualization, cloud-native infrastructure and AI-driven orchestration are reshaping the ground segment and determining the pace of 5G NTN deployment.

Q: How is the role of the ground segment evolving from traditional gateway infrastructure to a more dynamic, software-defined control layer, and what architectural changes are most critical to support satellite/terrestrial integration?

A: As satellite networks evolve towards more software-defined, agile systems in space, the parallel evolution of the ground segment away from fixed gateways toward more flexible, programmable orchestration layers is becoming critical. The ground segment is no longer a purely physical termination point, but a software layer that enables operators to mix different applications, waveforms, antennas and orchestration layers across different vendors. AI and machine-learning remain central in this evolution, unlocking capabilities like intelligent scheduling, predictive maintenance, anomaly detection and dynamic resource allocation at scale.

We can already see this shift happening commercially. ST Engineering iDirect’s Intuition platform, available since late 2025, uses cloud-native, microservices-based architecture that can reduce hardware requirements by up to 70%. iDirect also introduced a consumption-based service model, Intuition Unbound, which signals a broader shift from CAPEX-intensive infrastructure to OPEX-driven, on-demand microservices. On the 5G NTN front, Kratos Defense has been advancing has been advancing its OpenSpace software-defined ground system since 2025 with SES (formerly Intelsat) and was selected by JSAT in 2026 to develop and validate a 5G NTN ground system for APAC deployments using existing VSAT systems.

Q: To what extent will virtualization and cloud-native ground systems determine the success of NTN deployments, particularly when it comes to managing multi-orbit networks and seamless handover with terrestrial 5G networks?

A: As multi-orbit constellations proliferate, the complexity of managing multi-orbit, multi-waveform networks can’t be orchestrated in real time without software-defined control layers. Current bent-pipe (transparent) architectures place a heavier orchestration burden on the ground, while emerging regenerative payload architectures offload some of that complexity to the satellites themselves as parts of the gNodeB move onboard. Most near-term commercial deployments transparent, however, meaning cloud native ground systems are the most economically and operationally viable path forward for multi-orbit networks, as they can avoid the rigidity of dedicated orbit-specific hardware stacks.

The ground layer can also bridge legacy satellite waveforms and 5G core. LEO’s high velocity also introduces additional handover challenges, from Doppler-aware scheduling to pre-compensation, which is driving demand for predictive and AI-assisted handover approaches that cloud-native ground systems are best positioned to enable. The near-term bottleneck isn’t in the 3GPP standards, but in the ground segment’s ability to become a true software control layer that speaks to both satellite and 5G core across orbits.

Q: What are the biggest constraints in the ground segment today, and where should operators and vendors be prioritizing investment to enable NTN at commercial scale?

A: The biggest constraints aren’t technical but are structural. Legacy proprietary infrastructure, organizational silos between satellite and terrestrial operation, unresolved business models, fragmented spectrum harmonization across bands and the draw of vertically integrated close systems all remain real constraints. Vendors need to prioritize investing into open, software-defined orchestration layers that offer strong backward compatibility with legacy systems. Operators should also prioritize OSS/BSS convergence and consumption-based ground infrastructure models that let them scale NTN services without breaking the balance sheet on CAPEX-heavy builds before the revenue model is proven.


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