Beijing’s state-aligned satellite and telecom strategy could reshape global competition in spectrum, handset interoperability and the future balance between sovereign and private sector space networks. Rachel Kong, industry analyst for ABI Research, unpacks the scale and strategic intent behind China’s planned mega-constellations and its vertically integrated direct-to-device (D2D) ecosystem, from spectrum filings to 5G NTN trials.
Q: How do you assess the scale, timeline and technical differentiation of China’s planned mega-constellations and D2D connectivity compared to Western D2D initiatives, and what does this signal about Beijing’s long-term strategy for space-based mobility?
A: Currently, China has around five major mega constellations planned. These include China Satellite Network Group’s Guowang (13,000 satellites by 2035), Spacesail’s Qianfan (15,000+ satellites by 2030), and Hongqing Technology’s Honghu-3 (10,000 satellites). In January 2026, the newly established China’s Institute of Radio Spectrum Utilization and Technological Innovation filed for two additional mega constellations, CTC-1 and CTC-2, with a combined total of almost 200,000 satellites, demonstrating China’s long-term ambitions in the space industry. While there are few official details on the purpose of the orbital slots, the filings could be part of a broader strategy to reserve space for future commercial, military and security purposes, rather than leaving those positions open to competitors like SpaceX. Despite the scale of its plans, China currently lags in execution with only a few hundred satellites launched to date, compared with Starlink’s several thousand satellites already in orbit and operational.
In terms of China’s D2D strategy, satellite operators, state-owned telecom operators and the government are coordinated and working closely together to provide D2D services and satellite connectivity to their customers. For instance, China Unicom and China Telecom are already licensed to offer D2D services utilizing the state-owned Tiantong GEO satellite system. China Mobile uses the BeiDou navigation satellite system and plans to integrate with emerging LEO, MEO and GEO constellations to further expand D2D capabilities. Overall, the satellite and telecom industry are closely aligned with national technological priorities and policy objectives.
On the other hand, Western D2D strategies are largely driven by the private-sector and partnerships between mobile network operators (MNOs) and specialized satellite operators. For example, key partnerships include T-Mobile/Starlink, Verizon/AST SpaceMobile/ Skylo, Vodafone/AST SpaceMobile. In addition, their efforts are closely tied to the standardization of 3GPP Release 17/18/19 to enable broader device compatibility, accelerating commercial adoption.
We can see that China’s approach signals a long-term objective to build a large-scale sovereign space infrastructure that supports national digital infrastructure goals (such as integrated land-sea-air-space connectivity and 6G) to complement existing terrestrial networks and advances technological self-reliance.
Q: How is the alignment between satellite operators and state-backed telcos shaping spectrum strategy, 5G NTN standardization and commercial deployment models inside China?
A: China’s close alignment between satellite operators and state-backed telecom operators is demonstrating a highly coordinated, top-down approach. In late January 2026, China released its 15th five-year roadmap for its space sector, which sets out a unified commercial roadmap across various technological areas such as developing its orbital digital infrastructure (edge computing and AI platforms), satellite mega constellations and their integration with adjacent technological segments amongst other goals. This policy framework enables tighter coordination across stakeholders and ensures that satellite communications development aligns with broader national connectivity and industrial goals.
With strong alignment between satellite operators and telcos, China is treating space assets and infrastructure as an extension of the 5G/6G network, rather than standalone systems which supports a consolidation of spectrum usage, reducing fragmentation and enabling more efficient planning for large-scale satellite internet infrastructure. This integrated approach is designed to support seamless terrestrial and NTN interoperability within China in the long-term. In addition, Spacesail and other Chinese space networks are operating in regions (such as Asia, Africa and Latin America) without Chinese telco infrastructure. They do this by bundling services for enterprises customers, which are then delivered to consumers and end users through a B2B2C business model. This approach supports their commercial rollout beyond China.
The close alignment between both the satellite and telco industry is advancing 5G NTN standardization in China. Some key examples include ZTE and China Telecom completed a maritime 5G NTN trial where data transmission was successful via a GEO satellite. China Mobile has been pioneering 5G NTN field trials to verify terminal-to-satellite connections that focuses on integrating satellite communication with the 5G core network and supporting 5G-A initiatives.
Q: What are the global implications of a state-coordinated D2D ecosystem for spectrum competition, handset interoperability, supply chains and the competitive positioning of Western satellite and mobile operators?
A: A state-coordinated D2D ecosystem and China’s centralized approach to spectrum filings and mega-constellation planning can intensify competition for spectrum and orbital resources at the global level, particularly at the ITU. Large, early filings by state-backed entities such as China Satellite Network Group’s Guowang constellation and newer filings like CTC-1 and CTC-2, imply that spectrum access can be treated as a sovereign strategic tool rather than a commercial asset. China will be able to use a coordinated state approach to secure priority rights at the ITU, which can potentially block Western access in key regions, especially private satellite operators. Furthermore, a vertically integrated ecosystem threatens to bifurcate global standards. By controlling the entire stack – from the satellite chipsets and handsets to the constellations – state-backed players can subsidize hardware to undercut Western rivals. This creates a lock-in effect, where countries are forced to adopt Chinese-specific hardware to access the satellite network, effectively bypassing Western supply chains out of the loop entirely.
In terms of handsets, the state-driven ecosystem forces domestic manufacturers (like Huawei) to design handsets that support native, seamless switching between terrestrial mobile networks and satellite networks. However, these could limit global interoperability, especially for global device makers seeking to serve both the Chinese and Western markets. For example, Huawei smartphones already support satellite messaging via the BeiDou and Tiantong systems, delivering seamless functionality domestically but may risk limiting global interoperability if implementations rely on China-specific frequency bands and network architectures.
A vertically integrated model encourages domestic sourcing of materials, satellite platforms, payloads, launch services, and network equipment, which increases self-reliance and reduces dependence on Western or global suppliers. For Western vendors, this could mean heightened competition from Chinese suppliers in emerging markets (Africa, Latin America, and Asia-Pacific). In these regions, China’s ability to offer an integrated satellite-to-device ecosystem could challenge Western operators that rely on multi-partner deployment models.
