Nations are accelerating efforts to control their own space capabilities, pushing sovereignty to the center of global space strategy and forcing governments to rethink how they build, fund and protect critical infrastructure in orbit.
Read our top four takeaways from our conversation with Boston Consulting Group Associate Director for Aerospace and Defense Alessio Bonucci, or listen to the full episode.
Takeaway 1: Europe’s biggest space bottleneck isn’t the budget.
In the past, Europe’s main limitation was budget, but that’s no longer the biggest issue, Bonucci said.
Today, the real challenge is how quickly and effectively Europe can develop and deliver new space capabilities, he said. He points out that SpaceX changed the industry by being highly innovative and vertically integrated – doing almost everything in-house, even down to simple components. Europe’s industrial system wasn’t built that way, so adapting to this new model has been difficult.
“How can you really be competitive from a 360 perspective which is really what SpaceX has brought to the industry … Doing this in an industrial landscape that at least in Europe was not very much aligned in the same way, presents some challenges in terms of adaptation from an industrial perspective,” Bonucci said.
Takeaway 2: Launch capability will be a defining element of sovereign control.
In the short term, launch capability is the part of the space ecosystem that will prove to be the biggest test for a nation’s level of sovereignty in space, Bonucci said.
“We’re in a moment where SpaceX performs 50% of global launches and puts in orbit 80% of global mass. And if we think that Starship is somehow going to be successful, this is only going to get even more skewed,” Bonucci said. “So, if we really want to be there in terms of capabilities, launch is the next key thing.”
While satellite manufacturing is another challenge, nations that lack manufacturing capabilities typically buy from established players such as Lockheed or Boeing, Bonucci said.
The launch bottleneck also encompasses the entire launch ecosystem, Bonucci said.
“It’s not only launchers, which are traditionally the most complicated element of the value chain. Usually, people say, ‘This is not rocket science.’ That is the big rocket science,” he said.
Takeaway 3: Strategic autonomy is becoming a priority for mid-sized space nations.
Mid-sized countries within Europe and the wider Western orbit are trying to expand their domestic space industries to gain more strategic autonomy while still operating inside long-standing alliances, Bonucci said. Many of these nations are working to support small but growing national space champions as a way to build independence, he said. “These countries at the end of the day are trying to sustain national champions… to grow as much as possible their level of independence” he said.
In contrast, countries in regions such as the Middle East and Southeast Asia are taking a more transactional approach, choosing partners based on immediate advantages rather than long-term alignment, Bonucci said.
As they weigh competing offers, many are openly asking, “What can I get from the U.S. or Europe, or what can I get from Russia, or what can I get from China? And what drives me in terms of overall nation to the best possible outcome?” he said, noting that India is part of the Artemis Accords but is also pursuing their own independent capabilities across the space ecosystem.
Takeaway 4: Defense demand is pulling major space players away from commercial markets.
As governments prioritize sovereignty across areas like satellite communications and Earth observation, major space companies are increasingly shifting their focus toward defense-driven contracts, Bonucci said. “They’re typically larger-size checks. They’re typically longer-term contracts, much more bundled opportunities,” he said, noting that this allows companies to pursue one major ministry of defense rather than dozens of smaller commercial customers.
“The sovereignty push is getting stronger and stronger,” Bonucci said.
That shift, he added, leaves an opening for firms still willing to compete for commercial markets such as agriculture, logistics and in-flight connectivity. Bonucci warned that this window won’t stay open long, noting that if these companies fail to act within a few years, the major players benefiting from large government contracts “will have it all.”
For more, listen to the full episode.
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