For decades, satellite communications networks and terrestrial cellular networks operated in parallel universes, each optimized for distinct use cases and technical constraints. That boundary is dissolving rapidly, driven by a simple but transformative proposition: smartphones that can communicate directly with satellites, no special hardware required. The question is whether this direct-to-device (D2D) revolution is accelerating satellite’s embrace of 5G standards, or whether both trends represent parallel tracks of a longer convergence story.
The D2D Wave
The appeal of D2D connectivity is straightforward. Billions of standard smartphones could gain satellite connectivity for emergency services, messaging and eventually voice and data, all without requiring users to purchase specialized satellite phones or equipment. Multiple constellation operators have announced D2D initiatives: SpaceX’s Starlink has partnered with T-Mobile, AST SpaceMobile is building satellites specifically designed to work with unmodified phones, and established operators like Iridium and Globalstar continue expanding their smartphone integration efforts.
“The surge in direct-to-device services is absolutely pushing satellite operators to embrace 5G standards more quickly.” -Barbara Pareglio, GSMA
“The surge in direct-to-device services is absolutely pushing satellite operators to embrace 5G standards more quickly,” said Barbara Pareglio, senior technical director for GSMA and leader of the GSMA NTN Community, which supports standards and policy for the mobile industry and facilitates collaboration between mobile operators, satellite operators, technology vendors and enterprises. “Interoperability is no longer optional. Mobile operators and consumers expect seamless connectivity between terrestrial and non-terrestrial networks. Aligning with 3GPP’s NTN specifications enables that continuity and opens new revenue streams, which is why we’re seeing accelerated adoption across the industry.”
Yet not everyone agrees that D2D is the primary driver. Caleb Henry, research director for Quilty Space, said he doesn’t see D2D as the 5G standardization driver: “Perhaps controversially, no,” he said. “The push for 5G started well into the middle of the previous decade, before anyone was seriously talking about D2D.”
Henry pointed to a timeline that predates the D2D hype cycle.
“The satellite industry got excited about the potential for unified networks via 3GPP in the mid-2010s, and has been working with standards bodies to set the foundations for chipsets that can leverage satellite and terrestrial connectivity,” he said. “The process of making standards is a slow one, but satellite operators remain invested on the expectation that once complete, they will gain exposure to radically increased market sizes.”
“It’s great to see terrestrial network providers thinking about how non-terrestrial can augment their offerings.” -Sergy Mummert, Hyperspaced Ventures
The terrestrial ecosystem appears largely ready, said one industry observer. “It’s great to see terrestrial network providers thinking about how non-terrestrial can augment their offerings,” said Sergy Mummert, a retired SES executive and member of Hyperspaced Ventures who continues to consult for SES. “We’re seeing interest on both sides.”
The Ecosystem Dance
The Third Generation Partnership Project (3GPP), which develops cellular telecommunications standards, has been incorporating non-terrestrial networks (NTN) into 5G specifications since Release 15. Release 17, finalized in 2022, introduced the first comprehensive NTN specifications, while Releases 18 and 19 continue expanding these capabilities.
For Pareglio of GSMA, standardization through 5G NTN represents a game-changer.
“It reduces complexity, speeds up deployment, enables scale and ensures that mobile devices, from smartphones to IoT sensors, can connect directly to satellites without bespoke hardware,” she said. “With handset makers already embedding satellite capability, we’re moving from niche emergency use cases to mainstream connectivity, paving the way for truly ubiquitous coverage.”
“It’s four ecosystems that need to come together on things.” -Andrew Cavalier, ABI Research
But the reality of 5G NTN adoption involves complex coordination across multiple industries. Andrew Cavalier, principal analyst for ABI Research, described the interlocking dependencies that make progress challenging: “You need the operators from the terrestrial side, the satellite side, you need the chipset vendors, you need the handset OEMs,” he said. “So it’s four ecosystems that need to come together on things.”
This creates what Cavalier characterized as a fundamental coordination problem. “From the beginning, a few years back when they were starting to talk about NTN and direct-to-device, Qualcomm and different chipset vendors said, ‘Well, we’re ready to do this. We just need to wait for the satellite operators,’ or ‘We just need to wait for the handset vendors.’ So from the terrestrial side, they see this as something that they could easily implement.”
Chipset support for geostationary satellites already exists, with LEO network support expected as more networks come online with the standard. “When the capability to actually provide the service comes online from the satellite operators, then essentially all the terrestrial components are ready to accommodate,” Cavalier said.
Yet he describes the current situation as “a bit of a chicken and egg.” Chipset vendors and handset manufacturers won’t produce capabilities at scale without satellite operators ready to provide connectivity. Conversely, satellite operators are hesitant to commit without demonstrated ecosystem support.
Mixed Signals and Strategic Uncertainty
Part of the hesitation stems from the continued appeal of proprietary solutions and the variety of business models being pursued. Different satellite operators are taking fundamentally different approaches, creating what Cavalier describes as confusion in the market.
Different satellite operators are taking fundamentally different approaches, creating confusion in the market.
“It’s not entirely clear to me that players that usually have a proprietary solution fully see the benefits for NTN over a lot of their proprietary solutions,” he said. “There are certain customers that would enjoy that capability because they spend maybe 20% of their time over cellular networks, and it’s just cheaper for them to be on a satellite link that can switch between both. But for a lot of the use cases that are a bit higher end that require more data rates or more kind of specialization in the protocol, proprietary in their view is still a strong path to enable.”
The business model diversity compounds the challenge. SpaceX’s approach with T-Mobile involves spectrum sharing and revenue splits. AST SpaceMobile positions itself as an extension of terrestrial networks’ radio access networks, with telecommunications companies cutting off pieces of their spectrum for satellite use. Meanwhile, operators like Iridium are moving forward with 5G NTN standards for their upcoming services.
Divergent Paths Forward
For satellite operators, the calculus around 5G standards involves weighing standardization benefits against proprietary advantages. Standards offer native integration with terrestrial infrastructure, simplified roaming agreements, and compatibility with mass-market devices. “For narrowband providers especially,” Cavalier said, “it’s still not entirely clear that the standard is an absolute necessity when existing proprietary approaches serve their markets effectively.”
Different operators are making different bets, resulting in what might be characterized as strategic hedging rather than unified momentum. Some pursue standards-based implementations, others maintain proprietary solutions and many explore hybrid approaches that leverage both paths. This diversity of strategies makes it difficult to characterize the industry as racing collectively toward 5G standards adoption. The telecommunications companies partnering with satellite operators find themselves navigating this uncertainty.
Parallel Evolution
The trajectory of satellite communications and 5G standards may be less about D2D services driving adoption and more about parallel evolution. The groundwork for 5G NTN integration began years before direct-to-device captured public imagination. D2D services represent one application—albeit a highly visible one—of broader satellite-terrestrial convergence that the industry has been pursuing for nearly a decade.
The coming years will reveal which approaches prove most successful: pure standards-based implementations, proprietary solutions or hybrid models that leverage both.
The coming years will reveal which approaches prove most successful: pure standards-based implementations, proprietary solutions or hybrid models that leverage both. The diversity of business models, technical approaches, and market strategies suggests the industry isn’t converging on a single path but rather exploring multiple routes toward satellite-terrestrial integration.
For the satellite industry, this represents both disruption and opportunity. The winners will likely be operators who successfully match their technical approach to specific market needs while maintaining flexibility as the ecosystem develops. Whether that integration happens primarily through 5G standards, proprietary solutions or some combination depends less on D2D proliferation alone and more on how effectively each approach delivers value across the complex, interconnected ecosystem.
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