As satellite and cellular networks converge, the industry is working to position non-terrestrial networks (NTN) as a seamless extension of 5G infrastructure. Andrew Cavalier, principal analyst for ABI Research, explains why latency, device economics and evolving standards like 3GPP Release 17 will determine how quickly satellite connectivity moves from niche deployments to mass-market mobile services.
Q: What key technical or economic milestones still need to be reached for 5G NTN services to expand to widespread commercial deployment? Are there still hurdles?
A: Some of the biggest remaining hurdles are latency and cost. Reliably delivering sub-100 millisecond latencies can unlock more in mobile device and IoT use cases beyond basic connectivity, and NTN-integrated chipsets need to hit price points that make mass-market devices viable. Until connectivity plans for NTN become more affordable, the business case outside of niche verticals like maritime and IoT remains fragile.
Q: How do you see mobile network operators integrating NTN into their existing infrastructure, and what role will evolving standards like 3GPP Release 17 play in making that integration seamless?
A: Most operators are pursuing a phased multi-vendor approach. MNOs are becoming satellite service aggregators, using NTN first as a supplemental coverage layer in rural or maritime gaps before building toward seamless terrestrial/non-terrestrial handover in IoT mobile connections and finally into the cellular subscriptions itself. Release 17 is foundational because it standardizes the NTN-specific physical layer adaptations that make satellite-native 5G possible but Release 18 and 19 will be where true service continuity matures. We are seeing the operators who are integrating NTN into their network architecture today have been able to increase geographic footprint 5–10% and population-coverage gaps another 1–3%.
Q: With satellite operators, mobile carriers and chipset vendors all entering the NTN ecosystem, how do you see the competitive landscape evolving? Which players are best positioned to capture the most value from the satellite/cellular convergence?
A: Clearly first-mover advantage is showing advantages with gaining subscriber and building partnerships with Telcos, as mobile carriers hold the subscriber distribution and aggregate the satellite services. Chipset vendors, particularly Qualcomm and MediaTek, may ultimately be the market makers, since NTN adoption at scale depends entirely on how broadly and affordably they embed NTN support into mainstream silicon.
